Friday, November 1, 2013

Is Global Heating Hiding out in the Oceans? Parts of Pacific Warming 15 Times Faster Than in Past 10,000 Years

"Oct. 31, 2013 — A recent slowdown in global warming has led some skeptics to renew their claims that industrial carbon emissions are not causing a century-long rise in Earth's surface temperatures. But rather than letting humans off the hook, a new study in the leading journal Science adds support to the idea that the oceans are taking up some of the excess heat, at least for the moment. In a reconstruction of Pacific Ocean temperatures in the last 10,000 years, researchers have found that its middle depths have warmed 15 times faster in the last 60 years than they did during apparent natural warming cycles in the previous 10,000."


In the most recent report that was released in September, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shared that there has been a slowdown in global warming. Each decade from 1950-1990, the temperature increased by 1/5th of a degree Fahrenheit. After 1998, a very hot year, the warming rate lowered by half. The IPCC says that it’s because “the pause to natural climate fluctuations caused by volcanic eruptions, changes in solar intensity, and the movement of heat through the ocean”. The IPCC believes that the ocean has collected much of the green house gas that humans have put into the atmosphere but findings in Science think of the long-term consequences of this. Yair Rosenthal, a Rutgers University scientist, says that the oceans may be storing more of the effects of human emission than we think. He says the ocean’s absorbing the effects may slow down climate change but not stop it.

Buoys that are placed all over the ocean measure ocean heat. Instruments from ships are also lowered to record temperatures. Another method that is used is the analysis of the chemistry of ancient marine life. Over the last 10,000 years the climate has been pretty stable. In the last 60 years though, from the surface of the Earth to 2,200 feet, the climate has increased 0.18 degrees Celsius, which might seem small but this rate of increase is 15 times fast than any period throughout the last 10,000 years.

One explanation for the recent slow down in climate warming is because there might be a La Niña-like cooling in the eastern Pacific waters. Climate modelers from Scripps Institution of Oceanography demonstrated that la Niña cooling seems to slow down during the winter in the northern hemisphere but it allows for the waters to really become warm during the summer. “When the La Niña cycle switches, and the Pacific reverts to a warmer than usual El Niño phase, global temperatures may likely shoot up again, along with the rate of warming.” Global temperatures do not steadily raise, instead Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, describes it as walking up a staircase for 10 years and then you have a jump in which things are never the same like before. Drew Shindell, a climate scientist who works at Columbia’s Earth Institute and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, believes that looking at surface temperature may not be as useful as looking at stored energy by the climate system.

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